Grantville Gazette-Volume XI Read online

  Delivery Time

  In theory, maritime transportation was the fastest. "In good conditions, ships could cover 60 to 100 miles a day; carts and pack animals could manage 15 to 25; and riverboats and barges perhaps 10." (Kohn I, 50–51) Traveling from England to the New World took 1–2 months (Singman 89) and, of course, was only possible by sea.

  However, the nominal speed advantage of sailing ships was misleading. First of all, the ocean route might be several times longer than the overland route; compare, for example, Hamburg to Venice. "The distance between Venice and Bruges or

  Antwerp by sea was roughly five times the distance by land." (Kohn I, p. 51).

  Secondly, oceangoing vessels were more dependent on weather, and might have to sit out storms in port, or veer far off course to avoid one at sea, thus losing more time. Nor could the vessels of the day sail close to the wind.

  Finally, a ship captain usually could not afford to travel with a lightly laden ship and thus, unless your cargo was large enough to fill the ship, or you could afford the cost of a charter, you had to wait until the captain received enough cargo from others to justify setting sail. Overland departures were therefore more frequent.

  Alternatively, the problem of obtaining sufficient cargo could result in longer shipping times, as desperate shipowners would taken on cargoes which forced them to make side trips.

  For these reasons, it could actually be faster to move goods over the overland route, even though ships were speedier than pack animals.

  Speed and Direction

  There is a favored direction for water and air travel.

  Ocean travel. In the oceans, the prevailing winds and currents, and their seasonal variations, dictated the general flow of commerce. The best route around the Horn of Africa required sailing west to Brazil, down the South American coast, and then back to the East. The seasonal monsoon winds dictated the pattern of trade in the Indian Ocean.

  Generally speaking, long outbound and return voyages were of different lengths. The voyage from Acapulco to Manila was just three months, but the return trip required six to eight months (Braudel 312).

  River travel. Riparian travelers are more dependent on current than seafarers. On a river, the current carries you downstream, but retards your return trip. The vessel must be sailed, rowed, poled, towed, bow-hauled or warped upstream. (In "bow-hauling," a cable attached at one end to the bow is wrapped around a sturdy tree upstream. The free end is held by the crew, who haul upon it, hopefully advancing the boat toward the tree. In warping, "anchor boats" drop anchor ahead of the barge and then haul on a cable to bring the main craft forward.) Hauling could be done by men, animals, shore-based steam engines, or steamboats. (Hadfield 90-2). The term "hauling," as used by watermen, includes pushing as well as pulling, and in the nineteenth century it was discovered that a steamboat could efficiently propel a train of barges ahead of it.

  Prior to steam power, the trip down the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, from Pittsburgh to New Orleans, took one month, but the trip upstream necessitated up to four months. (Meyer, 96).

  Steamboats. Steamboats are not only faster than sailing ships, they are independent of the wind. Hence, the traditional directional differences were muted by the steam navigation. In 1820, steamboats reduced the average length of the against-the-current New Orleans-Pittsburgh run from 100 to 30 days. (Meyer 107).

  Air travel. Air speed and fuel costs are seriously affected by headwinds and tailwinds.

  Speed and Money

  All else being equal, a faster vehicle is better. First, your exposure to risks of travel (disease, warfare, piracy) is reduced. The longer the voyage, the more crew was lost to illness or accident. Scurvy was a noteworthy killer on long-distance cruises. Longer trips also increased the chance that the travelers would run afoul of brigands or armies on land, or foreign navies, privateers, or pirates at sea. Higher speed meant that if you sighted a potential enemy, you were more likely to be able to make good your escape.

  Carriers can make more trips each year, thereby increasing your revenue. A 200 ton ship making two trips a year can transport, at most 800 tons of cargo annually. If you could squeeze a third trip in (and the demand exists to fill the ship again), you could increase its revenue 50%.

  With fast transport, merchants can more readily take advantage of fluctuations in supply and demand. Temporary shortages (e.g., famines caused by harvest failures) created opportunities for profit, but mostly for those who brought the goods into harbor first. Perishable goods would fetch a better price if they had spent less time in transit.

  Finally, merchants can reduce your financing and "opportunity costs." Money is tied up in the goods until they are sold.

  * * *

  The benefits of speed are even more pronounced in passenger service (Slack). By the eighteenth century, "fly coach" service was attracting customers in England despite its arduous nature.

  Short Hauls and Long Hauls

  The reason that our basic method of forecasting the total transportation cost for a particular transport mode works reasonably well is that many of the underlying costs are based, directly or indirectly, on the distance traveled. One example, daily wages has already been mentioned. If you want to split hairs, wages are a function of time, not distance. But if the speed on the route is constant, then there is a proportionality between the distance traveled and the time spent. The same is true of room and board for the crew. River tolls tend to accumulate, more or less linearly, with the distance traversed. For engine-driven vehicles, fuel consumption is also based, mostly, on distance, although some fuel is burnt when idling, and speed affects fuel efficiency.

  Long distance transportation costs could be pushed up by a number of factors. As you travel out of your own country, the risk of predation, legal and illegal, increases; as a foreigner, you are considered "fair game." You are also less likely to be familiar with army movements, bandit haunts, etc.

  While predation costs are higher for long-distance travel, long-distance carriage costs are lower

  For example, "it cost 25–33 soldi to carry a cantar of cotton from Chios to Barbary, but only 40–44 soldi to carry it to Flanders, perhaps three times the distance." (Kohn I, p. 18). In the mid-sixteenth century, the price of carrying wine from Spain to Bristol was only 25% higher than that of transporting it from Bordeaux, even though the sailing distance and time was twice as great (Jones I, 15-16).

  The principal reason why short hauls are expensive is that carriers have fixed costs and their fares must cover those costs.

  Fixed and Variable Costs

  According to economic theory, transport costs can be subdivided into two basic components:

  variable costs (which are directly proportionate to the length or duration of the journey)

  fixed costs (which are independent of the length or duration of the journey).

  * * *

  The variable costs include the fuel (wood, coal, gas, oil, etc.) for inanimate vehicles (locomotives, steamships, airplanes), and feed and stable fees for draft or pack animals when on the road. They include maintenance expenses attributable to use (e.g., tire replacement for trucks). They also include the living expenses (shelter, provisions) for the hands. And they probably include at least part of the crew wages.

  * * *

  The fixed costs include the costs of acquiring the transport vehicle (e.g., mule, railroad train, sailing ship), the terminal facilities (e.g, a dock, railroad station, airport, and also perhaps a warehouse), and the right-of-way (e.g., railroad track). Conveniently, there are no right of way costs for the open sea or for the air (unless you count air traffic control).

  A carrier may not need to pay its full share of the fixed costs of the transport system. Some transportation infrastructure costs are financed by governments, through taxes or bond issues, and not passed on to carriers through usage fees.

  Fixed costs also include licenses, taxes and insurance, to the extent they are independent of the mileage. And they incl
ude the overhead (the carrier's office and office employees).

  * * *

  In terms of variable costs, in the twentieth century, transport by water was cheaper than rail, and rail cheaper than road. But if you look at fixed costs, the reverse is true. That means that there will be a critical distance at which the cost of truck and rail transport is equal (~500–750 km in 2000, Slack). Trucking will be cheaper for shorter routes, and rail for longer ones. Likewise, there will be a critical distance at which the cost of rail and barge transport is equal (~1500 km in 2000).

  For air travel, there is no critical distance at which it is cheaper than alternative transport modes (Rawdon).

  * * *

  In the real world, one also finds "mixed" costs, which have a basal level (fixed), but which also increase to some degree as a result of economic activity. For example, railroad tracks, locomotives and rolling stock always require maintenance, but the amount of wear and tear increases with use. The same is true of sailing ships.

  Classification of costs isn't always easy. For example, if the crew level and pay is constant, whether the ship is in port or at sea, then crew salaries are a fixed cost. If the entire crew is hired for a specific voyage, and discharged at journey's end, and the wages paid are proportional to the length of the voyage, then the salaries are a variable cost. If the truth lies somewhere in-between, they are a mixed cost.

  There are also costs which depend on the number of trips, or the number of stops, but not on the length of the journey. Those don't neatly fit the definition of either fixed costs or variable costs. Examples: port fees, turnpike entry tolls. They, too, can be considered mixed costs. However, if a turnpike or canal has multiple toll stations, then you are paying a right of way fee which is effectively proportional to distance traveled, and that makes it a variable cost.

  Some costs depend on the amount of cargo transported, rather than on travel duration or distance, and hence are classified as fixed costs even though they are incurred only if there is some transport activity. Cargo handling costs are the most obvious example. Kohn says that for a given size ship, fully loaded, the cost of loading and unloading should be constant. (Actually, it's the time that should be constant, ignoring handling technology differences, but the costs will also depend on local wage levels.) If that cost is spread over a longer journey, then the effective cost per mile is less. Handling fees can be significant; for an 1878 voyage between Liverpool and Bombay, the stevedores' and port charges were about 14% of the total cost. (Armstrong 106).

  Tolls can also fall into that category, as the use fee can be based on the cargo (as opposed to being a flat fee, or one based on cargo capacity).

  * * *

  From the carrier's point of view, fixed costs are bad, because you endure them even when you don't have a customer. It is sometimes possible to transform a fixed cost into a variable cost. For example, you could defer buying mules until you had a delivery contract, and resell the mules when the mission was completed. Or you could rent animals by the day or by the miles traveled (this was done for post horses). And you can discharge crew at voyage's end. Of course, whether this is a good idea or not depends on how much more you have to pay for the increased flexibility, and whether you might lose profitable business because the animals or crew weren't available for purchase when you needed them.

  Carrier Rate Setting

  If you are the carrier, then to stay in business, your transport charges have to cover both types of costs. If you are the customer (the shipper), then you will find that the fares you are charged are designed to cover, not only the direct journey costs, but also your journey's share of the carrier's fixed costs.

  The greater your "wait time" (whether it be for maintenance, or just waiting for a cargo), the more important your fixed costs are. One of the disadvantages of aircraft is that they require a lot of maintenance. In WW II, the average shuttle plane was on the ground at least 15 hours a day (Snell).

  It is possible that a vehicle might need more maintenance (e.g., careening a ship to clean off barnacles) after a long journey than after a short one. However, the "wait time" for obtaining new cargos is a function of the vehicle's cargo capacity, and the infrastructure for bringing new cargos to it, rather than the length of its last trip.

  The greater the total "wait time," the smaller the revenue base which has to pay for all the costs, fixed and variable. If short hauls are assigned their fair share of the down time, their rate per ton mile will be higher than for the long hauls.

  The fixed costs paid during wait time aren't necessarily just the rental or finance charges on your vehicle. In the seventeenth century, it was the practice that, when in an intermediate port (i.e., not your home port), you continued to pay your sailors wages, even though you didn't have to feed them. On the Bristol-Bordeaux run, port-time wages increased total labor costs as much as four-fold. (Kohn I).

  When the journeys are long, wait time is relatively small, variable costs dominate, and charges are proportional to distance traveled.

  For short hauls, the fixed costs are more important, and the effective ton mile price is likely to be greater.

  Up-Time Improvements in Transport

  My concern here is not to determine which up-time improvements can be duplicated post-Ring of Fire, and how, but rather to ascertain what their effect would be on transportation costs, carrying capacity, etc.

  * * *

  Roads. Clearly, roadways can be improved, and the USE has already made a start on this. The great pioneers in road design were Thomas Telford (1757–1834) and John McAdam (1756–1836). Their roads initially had a broken stone surface; the wagon traffic compacted the stones, and generated dust, which then acted, together with rainwater, as a binding medium. Both also gave careful attention to drainage, but Telford favored a foundation of large, uniformly sized stones, which increased the expense and construction time, while McAdam was content with soil if it was well-drained. It was McAdam's views which prevailed, and the English came to speak of hard-surfaced roads as being "macadamed."

  These roads allowed for an increase in overland transport speed. For example, Telford's London-to-Holyhead road, 261 miles long, constructed 1815–1830, could be traversed by coaches in slightly over 23 hours, not counting the stops for horse changes and meals. (Hindley, 69). In contrast, in mid-nineteenth century Germany, the roads were only good enough to allow a pace of twenty miles a day (comparable to the non-turnpike roads in England). (Hindley, 79).

  When rubber tires appeared on the scene, and road speeds increased, the raising of dust became a problem. The solution was the use of tar as a binding agent (hence the name "tar macadam," or "tarmac").

  Nineteenth-century America was blessed with immense forests, and this fostered the development of "plank" or "corduroy" roads. When in good condition, they allowed rapid travel (coaches at 9 mph), but they wore out within a few years. Wood is relatively expensive in seventeenth-century Germany.

  Even without road improvement, it is possible to achieve an advance in transport efficiency merely by standardizing the "rut gauge" of vehicles in the USE. (Hindley, 78).

  * * *

  Motor Vehicles. There are thousands of motor vehicles in Grantville, but they can't be put to effective use until roads are improved and fuel problems solved.

  Rail. Railways–even without locomotives–offer great improvements in the volume of freight that a route can handle. In our time line, the first use of rails was in mines, with ponies drawing the mine train. Mules can draw twelve times their own weight if the load is on a rail car. That is a thirty-six fold improvement in the mules' cargo carrying efficiency. Draft horses would enjoy a similar benefit. (HNC).

  Horse-drawn trains were used for a time on the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad. The "crew" was 42 horses and 12 men, and the total operating cost was $33/day. The horses towed the train at a speed of 10 mph (Dilts, 196).

  The introduction of steam locomotives will ultimately improve both drawing capacity and speed. T
he Stephenson Planet began operation between Liverpool and Manchester in 1830. It drew eighteen carriages, with a total load of eighty seven tons (eight tons for the engine, one ton for the fifteen man crew, four tons for tender, water and fuel, fifty one tons of cargo, and twenty three tons of wagons and oil-cloths). The journey took just shy of three hours, and the average speed was over twelve miles an hour (Ringwalt).

  They are also more economical. The 1832 locomotive Atlantic, which replaced the B&O horses, could go 20 mph, and its operating cost was just $16/day ($8/ton anthracite, $2 engineer, $1.50 assistant).

  The building of rail lines won't make roads obsolete. There are practical limits to the density of the rail network, and stagecoaches (or motor vehicles) will transport goods (and people) to and from the rail stations.